Odds on Odds: Dixie Vodka 400

WATKINS GLEN, NY - AUGUST 05: Chase Elliott, driver of the #9 SunEnergy1 Chevrolet, celebrates in Victory Lane after winning the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series GoBowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 5, 2018 in Watkins Glen, New York. (Photo by Sarah Crabill/Getty Images)

What an exciting night of racing we had on Wednesday? Martinsville under the lights was spectacular. Now we race at Homestead in the middle of the season. Betting should be good for the Dixie Vodka 400.

Odds on Odds: Dixie Vodka 400

For the first time since early in the track’s history we are seeing a race that isn’t the championship event in Miami. It is the first time that the race has ever been run in June. Sunday we will see a very hot slick race track. Places like this play into the dirt background and veterans hands.

Another thing to watch come Sunday is the abrasive nature of Homestead-Miami Speedway. The track is a worn out, mile and a half track. You’ll get a sense of where I go with this. Take all of these things into account when betting on the Dixie Vodka 400.

Wednesday night was a long race but full of action. It ended up with a familiar face getting his first win of the season. Martin Truex, Jr. who couldn’t win on a short track, has now won back to back at the famed Virginia speedway. Such a fun event as it was the first time in the storied history of the facility that a race was scheduled to be held under the lights.

Nascar did it right by keeping that event under lights and I hope that it continues moving forward.

Sunday’s race intrigues many because of the difference that it brings being a non-championship race. Will we see someone rise up to the occasion or will we see a veteran dominate? One things for sure, its going to be hot, hot, hot and that is never seen at this place before.

Let’s dive into the betting odds for the Dixie Vodka 400. Odds are through Vegas Insiders. All odds subject to change prior to green flag.

Hands Down Favorites

To no one’s surprise, a slick, abrasive racetrack that’s worn down, Kevin Harvick is the hands down favorite. He dominated the second half of the event at Atlanta last Sunday and won at Darlington, a similar type track, in Nascar’s return. Sunday will be much of the same as KH is +400. Winning here in 2014 to clinch his first championship, Harvick has been in contention for every race win since. Look for his car to be at the front again on Sunday.

Joe Gibbs Racing teammates take up the next on the list. Wednesday night winner Truex, Jr is on the board at +500. Those are his best odds of the season since Las Vegas. It has been a roller coaster year for MTJ. Wednesday he won his first race of the season and prior to that he picked up his first stage win of the year in Atlanta.

His teammate Kyle Busch is +550. Following a pre-race inspection issue in the Truck race on Saturday, Busch managed to roll through the field and win at Homestead. The defending champion is looking to get back on track and headed in the right direction. A debacle at Martinsville and a battle all day at Atlanta, his Toyota needs something good. Oh and by the way, he’s looking for win #1 on the year. When was his last win in the Cup Series you might ask? Homestead last year to win the title.

Betting Favorites to Win the Dixie Vodka 400

The driver who has seen the most upside this year has been Chase Elliott. It is almost a breakout year for him, despite having only one win. Everywhere the series goes, Elliott has been fast and running up front. Homestead may not be his best track but once again we go to a mile and half and Hendrick has been quick. Elliott is +700, keep an eye on the Dawsonville driver.

The 2018 champion Joey Logano is another guy to keep an eye on. He is on the board at +750 and has gone to victory lane here to win his title. Something has to give. His Ford has been quick all year and he is running up front right now. Look for Logano to amke some noise Sunday.

Outside Favorites to Win

There is a driver in this list that jumps off the paper and that’s Kurt Busch. He may not have won a race yet this year or even had the best car but he has been fast all year long. Take a long hard look at him for a sleeper pick in this event. Busch is +2500 and could really surprise on Sunday.

A driver who really surprised me at Martinsville was Ryan Blaney. Blaney has struggled to finish races this season. He even probably had the car to beat in a couple of them. Seeing him finish second was a step in the right direction. This gives one a little more confidence in betting on him in the Dixie Vodka 400. On the board at +1200, he has an outside shot at getting it done. Team Penske is good, can they stay there and get their third driver into the playoffs?

Other Outside Favorites

We have said it time and time again. Jimmie Johnson is bound to win again. He is fast and has been running up front. Will Sunday be the day? Johnson is +2000 and really could get the job done. He has not won at Homestead since his seventh title in 2016 but again here we sit.

Denny Hamlin has won at Homestead twice in his career. Unfortunately, neither of those were for a championship. Hamlin won the last non-playoff style race at Homestead back in 2013. With the move to June will this be the time Hamlin gets his groove back? On the board at +1000 and on the pole. It’s really unfair that he’s in the outside favorites.

Other drivers to watch for are Alex Bowman who is at +2000 and Clint Bowyer who is +2800. Both drivers have had good runs recently with Bowyer really good at Atlanta. Had it not been for two left rear tires cording, Bowyer might have a win in the column.

Long Shots to Bet On

Betting on the Dixie Vodka 400 and looking for a long shot to win will be very difficult. Take this list more or less as a way to help fill out your line up in fantasy.

Let’s start with a rookie. Tyler Reddick has been mentioned in nearly everyone of these articles. He’s always fast, runs up front and stays out of trouble. The two time Xfinity Series champion ripped the top the last two years to win the crown. Sunday he will have to do it again but without hurting the car. At +6600, it is certainly possible for him to get it done. Add him to your fantasy lineup as well.

For some reason, I really like Erik Jones. This is about as similar as one can get to Darlington. Jones runs extremely well at Darlington and I feel he will do it at Miami as well. Currently Jones is +4000 and knows how to navigate his way around slick race tracks.

William Byron at +4000 is also an intriguing betting action for the Dixie Vodka 400. Fast cars and solid driving will get you up the list faster in my eyes. Byron has done just that this season. He’s better and he’s faster, and that combination will get him to the front soon.

Underdog Stories

There are only a couple of these that make sense. The first one is with Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Stenhouse is +100000 and has simply made JTG Daugherty Racing better. Sunday he gets the chance to prove himself some more and with a good run who knows what lies ahead. He starts 19th but has time to make up ground he is lacking at the start.

Chris Buescher is another one that becomes more interesting. +200000 heading into the event  makes this a fun bet. He is going to be an underdog story to unseat the top teams but with the performance he and teammate Ryan Newman  have shown lately, I wouldn’t be too surprised. Look for Buescher to be an underdog on Sunday.

Projected Fantasy Lineup

Fantasy this week will be interesting. In fact all sorts of betting on the Dixie Vodka 400 should be interesting. Looking at the names this week that make the list, one thing is for sure; it’ll be all over the map.

Have to take some chances this week with some of the drivers in the order. Look for drivers who have had good runs here in the past but also tend to shine come summer months. This week we will go with: Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, William Byron, Erik Jones and Tyler Reddick.

Very very young lineup but also that has a combined 30 top tens this year and will have lots of passing points built in.

Match-ups, Value and Underdog Picks for the Dixie Vodka 400

Match-ups this week look to be fun. After doing some research and digging a few of these battle are my favorite. It starts with Denny Hamlin taking on Alex Bowman. Normally I’d be all over Bowman at +115 but not this time. Hamlin is the favorite at -135 and will end as the favorite too. Hamlin finishes higher than Bowman but not by as many places as you think.

The next match-up comes from deeper in the field and that is Matt DiBenedetto taking on Aric Almirola. They both are -110 and both start mid-pack. In this battle I look to who will be more aggressive and Matty D is generally that guy. I think he will win this even match-up and add another to the win column.

A bonus match-up to watch, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr versus Ryan Newman. Give me the underdog in this fight with Stenhouse at +120. I like this betting option in the Dixie Vodka 400.

For this week’s value pick there will be some youth in it. I really like Erik Jones for betting in the Dixie Vodka 400. He is +4000 and runs well on tracks that are old and slick. He has been impressive at these type of tracks and if you want to make some cash take a look at the young JGR driver. Jones will definitely be in the mix.

For an upset pick this week I will go with Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. He has a dirt track background. This is going to be a hot slick track that will lend its hand to that style. Let;s see if RSJ can keep a right rear in tact and be there at the end.

The Pick to Win the Dixie Vodka 400 is…?

The betting action on the Dixie Vodka 400 is expected to be high yet again. With many great battles happening week in and week out, there’s no way they can see betting slow down. It is certainly exciting times to be a Nascar fan and you will see it on display again. There will be a limited amount of people in the stands for the race Sunday.

When making a betting selection on the Dixie Vodka 400, I had to take into account what happened last year and how they are running this season. It has been different this year with no practice and I feel that has made the racing so much better. Kyle Busch is always good here and so is Kevin Harvick. Martin Truex, Jr has been strong here recently. Chase Elliott could add yet another to his resume.

One thing that will always stand out though, this race is not for a championship. How will that change the race and who is contending for the win at the end? Look for cars who have been fast this year. The pick to win the Dixie Vodka 400 is…

Chase Elliott

‘Awesome Bill from Dawsonville’s’ son will go to victory lane on Sunday, something dad did in 2001. He has been so fast this season and when running at Darlington last he was near the front the whole race. They will have to make some adjustments along the way but expect to see that 9 car up front early and often.

Sunday’s betting action for the Dixie Vodka 400 will be fun and I’m excited to see what comes out of it.

The Dixie Vodka 400 from Homestead Miami Speedway is green at 3:00pm ET and live on FOX and MRN.

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